UK Real-Terms Wage Growth 2026

The detail

ONS's real average weekly earnings series for total pay (A3WX: whole economy, seasonally adjusted, deflated by CPIH) peaked at £516 a week in March 2008. It then fell through the post-financial-crisis years to £465 in March 2013, 9.9% below the peak, and recovered only slowly: in January 2020 it was still 3.1% below.

The Covid-19 period distorted the series. Real pay first went above the 2008 peak in November 2020, but that reflected a change in the mix of jobs being paid during the pandemic (a compositional effect), not a broad pay rise, and it fell back. The 2022-23 inflation spike then pushed real pay down again: CPI inflation peaked at 11.1% in October 2022 (ONS D7G7).

Real pay has been above the March 2008 level in every month since February 2024, and in July 2026 it was £531 a week, 2.9% above the peak. So on this measure it took until 2024 for average real weekly pay to regain its 2008 level for good.

Nominal pay growth has slowed. In May to July 2026 annual growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 3.5% and in total pay 3.9%; through 2024 regular pay growth ran between 5.1% and 6.1% (ONS KAI9). Adjusted for CPIH inflation, real growth was 0.6% for regular pay and 0.9% for total pay over the same period (0.8% and 1.1% using CPI).