Spring Statement 2026: What Changed and What Stayed the Same

The March 2026 Spring Forecast: what the OBR forecast, and why 2026/27 UK tax rates and thresholds stayed as set, with calculator-checked take-home pay.

2026/27 tax year

Income Tax & Allowances
UK-wide

Spring 2026 brought a forecast, not a tax package. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) published its March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook on 3 March 2026 and the Chancellor responded with a statement to Parliament, but the Treasury had already said the government is committed to one major fiscal event a year, at the Budget. This page sets out what the OBR forecast, which 2026/27 tax settings apply, and what they mean for a UK payslip - with figures from the same tax rules that power our salary calculator.

What was announced (and what was not)

In December 2025 the Treasury announced that the OBR would publish a forecast on 3 March 2026, that it would not assess performance against the fiscal mandate but give "an interim update on the economy and public finances", and that the government would respond "through a statement to Parliament, in line with the government's commitment to deliver one major fiscal event a year at the Budget".

On 3 March 2026 the Chancellor set out the Spring Forecast in Parliament. The Treasury's press release covers inflation, borrowing, debt interest and growth; it announces no changes to Income Tax, National Insurance, dividend, Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax or SDLT rates or thresholds. The tax rules in force from 6 April 2026 are those already legislated, largely following the Autumn 2025 Budget.

The OBR's own page describes the forecast as "an interim update on the economic and fiscal outlook" ahead of the next Budget, and says it does not include an assessment against the fiscal rules because the government legislated to require that only at Budgets.

OBR forecast headlines

From the OBR March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook:

Growth: real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026, down from 1.4% in the November 2025 forecast, then an average of 1.6% a year over the rest of the forecast.
Inflation: CPI falling from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, and 2.0% from 2027 onwards.
Borrowing: £153 billion (5.2% of GDP) in 2024-25, £133 billion (4.3%) in 2025-26, falling to £59 billion (1.6%) in 2030-31. Borrowing this year was expected to be £6 billion lower than in November.
Debt: public sector net debt rising from 94½% of GDP in 2025-26 to a peak of 96½% in 2028-29, then 95% in 2030-31.
Economy: a starting output gap of -0.8% in the third quarter of 2025 (-0.6% in November); productivity growth rising to 1.0% by the end of the forecast.
Migration: net migration averaging 235,000 a year over 2026 to 2030, down from 295,000 in November, reflecting higher estimated emigration of British nationals.

The Treasury's press release adds its own figures, including that headroom against the stability rule had increased to almost £24 billion.

2026/27 tax settings

The settings in force from 6 April 2026, the start of the 2026/27 tax year, all read from the tax rules that power this site:

Personal Allowance: £12,570 (frozen since 2021/22; the freeze now runs to 5 April 2031).
Higher-rate threshold (England, Wales, NI): £50,270.
Additional-rate threshold: £125,140 (the point at which the Personal Allowance has fully tapered away).
PA taper: £1 of allowance withdrawn for every £2 of adjusted net income above £100,000.
Employee Class 1 NI: 8% main, 2% upper, Primary Threshold £242 a week.
Employer Class 1 NI: 15% above the £5,000 Secondary Threshold.
Class 4 self-employed NI: 6% main, 2% upper.
Dividends: £500 allowance; 10.75% ordinary, 35.75% upper and 39.35% additional rate.
ISA allowance: £20,000 (Lifetime ISA £4,000 within it; Junior ISA £9,000).
Pension Annual Allowance: £60,000; Money Purchase Annual Allowance £10,000; taper above £260,000 adjusted income, to a minimum of £10,000.
Capital Gains Tax: 18% and 24%; annual exempt amount £3,000; Business Asset Disposal Relief 18% from 6 April 2026 (14% in 2025/26).
Inheritance Tax: £325,000 nil-rate band and £175,000 residence nil-rate band, both frozen to April 2031.
SDLT: residential bands unchanged since 1 April 2025 (see below).

The freeze on the Personal Allowance and higher-rate threshold is the most consequential of these. As pay rises while the thresholds stay put, more income is taxed at higher rates each year ("fiscal drag") without any change in the rates themselves.

Household impact: worked example

The Spring Forecast announced no personal tax changes, so a 2026/27 payslip is simply the payslip on the settings above. A worker earning £45,000 gross in England, Wales or Northern Ireland gets these figures from our salary engine (you can reproduce them in the on-site calculator):

Gross salary: £45,000
Personal Allowance: £12,570
Taxable income: £32,430
Income Tax (all in basic rate): £6,486
Employee Class 1 NI: £2,594
Total deductions: £9,080
Take-home (annual): £35,920
Take-home (monthly): £2,993
Effective tax + NI rate: 20.2%
Employer NIC on the same role: £6,000

For a Scottish taxpayer the same £45,000 gives take-home pay of about £35,524, a difference of £396 a year, mainly because the Scottish 42% higher rate starts at £43,662 of gross income. Scottish Income Tax bands are set by the Scottish Parliament; the 2026/27 bands come from the Scottish Budget 2026-27.

Looking across the income spectrum, the engine returns:

Gross	Income Tax	Employee NI	Take-home	Effective rate
£30,000	£3,486	£1,394	£25,120	16.3%
£45,000	£6,486	£2,594	£35,920	20.2%
£60,000	£11,432	£3,211	£45,357	24.4%
£80,000	£19,432	£3,611	£56,957	28.8%
£100,000	£27,432	£4,011	£68,557	31.4%

The point of the table is the frozen thresholds rather than the spring forecast: the same allowance and bands apply at every salary, so pay rises push more of each salary into the higher rates.

Self-employed impact

Nothing changed for the self-employed at the Spring Forecast. Class 4 NI for 2026/27 is 6% on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 and 2% above. Class 2 is no longer payable; people with profits below the £7,105 Small Profits Threshold can pay it voluntarily at £3.65 a week.

The biggest change for sole traders and landlords in spring 2026 was operational: Making Tax Digital for Income Tax started on 6 April 2026 for those with qualifying income over £50,000. They must keep digital records and send quarterly updates by 7 August, 7 November, 7 February and 7 May, then submit their tax return as usual. The threshold falls to £30,000 from 6 April 2027 and £20,000 from 6 April 2028. See our MTD ITSA 2026 guide for the quarterly calendar.

The Dividend Allowance for 2026/27 stays at £500, but the ordinary and upper dividend rates rose by 2 percentage points from 6 April 2026, to 10.75% and 35.75%. The contractor calculator and dividend tax calculator both model the 2026/27 settings.

Property and SDLT

No SDLT change was announced in spring 2026. Residential SDLT in England and Northern Ireland (gov.uk):

0% on the portion up to £125,000.
2% from £125,001 to £250,000.
5% from £250,001 to £925,000.
10% from £925,001 to £1.5 million.
12% above £1.5 million.
First-time buyers: 0% to £300,000, 5% from £300,001 to £500,000; no relief if the price is over £500,000.
Additional properties: usually 5% on top of these rates.
Non-UK residents: usually a 2% surcharge on top.

Scotland's Land and Buildings Transaction Tax (LBTT) and Wales's Land Transaction Tax (LTT) are set by the Scottish Parliament and the Senedd. The SDLT calculator, LBTT calculator and LTT calculator cover each.

What's next: Autumn Budget 2026

With one major fiscal event a year, the next point at which the Chancellor would normally set or change tax rates, NI, dividend, CGT, IHT or SDLT is the Autumn Budget 2026. That is also when the OBR next assesses performance against the fiscal rules. The thresholds already legislated stay frozen until then and beyond: the Income Tax Personal Allowance and higher-rate threshold to 5 April 2031, and the IHT nil-rate bands to April 2031.

The March 2026 forecast's borrowing figure for 2030-31 of £59 billion (1.6% of GDP) is the baseline the autumn forecast will be compared with.

Frequently asked questions

Was there a Spring Statement in March 2026?

There was a Spring Forecast rather than a second fiscal event. The OBR published its March 2026 Economic and Fiscal Outlook on 3 March 2026, and the Chancellor responded with a statement to Parliament the same day. The Treasury had said in December 2025 that the spring forecast would be an interim update, would not assess performance against the fiscal mandate, and that the government is committed to one major fiscal event a year at the Budget.

Did any personal tax rates or thresholds change at Spring Statement 2026?

The Treasury's Spring Forecast press release announced no changes to personal tax rates or thresholds, and 2026/27 runs on the settings in force from 6 April 2026. The Personal Allowance is £12,570, the higher-rate threshold £50,270 and the additional-rate threshold £125,140. Employee Class 1 NI is 8% main and 2% upper rate above the £242 weekly Primary Threshold. The Dividend Allowance is £500 and the ISA allowance £20,000.

What did the OBR forecast at Spring 2026?

The OBR forecast real GDP growth of 1.1% in 2026 (down from 1.4% in its November 2025 forecast), averaging 1.6% a year over the rest of the forecast. It expected CPI inflation to fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 and 2.0% from 2027. Public sector net borrowing was forecast at £153 billion (5.2% of GDP) in 2024-25, £133 billion (4.3%) in 2025-26 and £59 billion (1.6%) in 2030-31.

Did the OBR assess fiscal-rule performance at Spring 2026?

No. The OBR says the March 2026 forecast does not include an assessment of performance against the fiscal rules, because the government legislated to require that assessment only at Budgets. It describes the forecast as an interim update on the economic and fiscal outlook ahead of the next Budget.

Will my take-home pay change because of Spring Statement 2026?

Not because of the Spring Forecast: no personal tax changes were announced. A £45,000 salary in England, Wales or Northern Ireland gives take-home pay of about £35,920 a year in 2026/27, from our salary calculator. Use the calculator to model your own salary.

Did Spring Statement 2026 change anything for the self-employed?

No self-employed tax changes were announced. Class 4 NI for 2026/27 is 6% on profits between £12,570 and £50,270 and 2% above, with voluntary Class 2 for those below the Small Profits Threshold. Making Tax Digital for Income Tax started on 6 April 2026 for sole traders and landlords with qualifying income over £50,000.

Are Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) or stamp duty thresholds changing in 2026?

No change was announced at the Spring Forecast. Residential SDLT in England and Northern Ireland is 0% to £125,000, 2% to £250,000, 5% to £925,000, 10% to £1.5 million and 12% above (gov.uk). First-time buyers pay 0% to £300,000 and 5% to £500,000, with no relief above £500,000. The higher rates for additional dwellings add 5%, and non-UK residents pay a further 2%.

When is the next Budget?

The government has committed to one major fiscal event a year at the Budget, so the next point at which tax rates, NI or allowances for 2027/28 would normally be set is the Autumn Budget 2026, which is also when the OBR next assesses the fiscal rules. Check gov.uk for the confirmed date.

Did anything about MTD ITSA change at Spring Statement 2026?

Not that we have found. The thresholds are set in regulations: sole traders and landlords with qualifying income over £50,000 from 6 April 2026, over £30,000 from 6 April 2027 and over £20,000 from 6 April 2028. Quarterly updates are due by 7 August, 7 November, 7 February and 7 May.

How does the OBR Spring Forecast affect interest rates and inflation?

It does not set them. The Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee sets Bank Rate independently. The OBR forecast is a projection of the economy and public finances on the government's existing policies.